Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Bushfires on Cashew Nut Production
Keywords:
Modeling, Transmission dynamics, Bush fires, Dynamics, Cashew NutAbstract
Bushfires pose a significant threat to cashew nut production, impacting both agricultural yields and
economic stability. This study developed a mathematical model to characterize the transmission dynamics
of bushfires and their effects on cashew nut production. The basic bushfire transmission metric, R0, was
computed and it was used to analyze the existence and stability of the equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis
was conducted using the normalized forward sensitivity index method, identifying that an effective bushfire
propagation rate significantly increases the incidence of bushfires. The findings indicated that reducing bushfire propagation and enhancing fire management practices can significantly mitigate the spread of bushfires,
leading to substantial reductions in bushfire incidence. Consequently, effective control strategies targeting
bushfire propagation rates and land management practices are crucial for safeguarding cashew nut production. This study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of bushfire dynamics and provides insights
for developing targeted interventions to mitigate bushfire risks in cashew nut production. Future research directions may involve integrating additional environmental factors, weather patterns, and exploring scenario
analysis to further refine bushfire management strategies.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Fadhili Mrope, Nkuba Nyerere

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